How Tasmania will cope with coronavirus circulating among a mostly vaccinated population will be investigated by the Garvan Institute of Medical Research.
The Premier's commissioned the modelling to be released with an border reopening plan in mid-October.
All of NSW, Victoria and the ACT are currently declared high-risk.
While not explicitly backing away from the National Plan, Peter Gutwein has reiterated his 90 percent vaccination target.
"We won't open up to the high-risk areas until we are confident that all eligible Tasmanians over the age of 12 have had the chance to be vaccinated," he said on Friday.
"Releasing that modelling will provide Tasmanians with an opportunity to consider both the reopening plan but also be fully cognisant of what the risks are going to be and importantly, how we intend to manage them."
The latest data shows 54.5 percent of Tasmanians over the age of 16 are double jabbed.
It comes as Tasmanians travelling from regional NSW will be allowed to quarantine at home from today.
Around 200 are waiting to return home, some of them wanting to avoid a mandatory $3000 stay in hotel quarantine, while others are waiting for a hotel spot to become available.
Local health authorities are now embarking on a 30-day trial of allowing those returning from regional NSW to stay at a suitable premises.
They'll have to return a negative COVID test, be fully vaccinated and will only be allowed to stay in an otherwise empty house which will have to display a warning sign.
It comes as Tasmania boosts its hotel quarantine capacity in Hobart; the government booking another 108 rooms at the Travelodge and 100 at the Ibis.
Image: Josh Agnew